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The Boyd Cycle: A theory of winning
Righttrack’s Jon Davies looks at how John Boyd’s ideas can give you the edge to beat the competition.
I have always been intrigued by the ideas of Colonel John Boyd (1927-1997). His theories on competition and how to win have been highly influential amongst the military as well as in sports and business.
What impresses me about Boyd's ideas is that they explain very different competitive situations in the real world - whether it's the 30-seconds of a fighter pilot dogfight or the months and years of a major military conflict.
The F-15 fighter:
A combined air-to-air combat record of 104 victories to 0 losses.
Design heavily influenced by John Boyd and his Energy–Maneuverability theory.
John Boyd's Background
Boyd was a one-off. His exploits, captured in a number of biographies, include:
As an instructor at the USAF Fighter Weapons School at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada he literally wrote the book on air-combat.
He used his practical knowledge of air-combat to develop his Energy–Maneuverability theory which allows capabilities of combat aircraft and prospective design trade-offs to be predicted and compared. As a result he heavily influenced the Pentagon on the design of the F-15 and F-16 fighters.
His approach to tackling problems was to use synthesis - combining two or more ideas to create something new, rather than analysis – the breaking down of something into smaller parts. This partially explains his very different approach when assessing military campaigns throughout history.
He built on this understanding in a briefing paper “Patterns of Conflict”, which introduced the concept of a decision cycle which Boyd called the OODA loop and others now call the Boyd Cycle.
Boyd is credited for largely developing the strategy for the invasion of Iraq in the first Gulf War. Former Commandant of the Marine Corps General Charles C. Krulak is quoted as saying "The Iraqi army collapsed morally and intellectually under the onslaught of American and Coalition forces. John Boyd was an architect of that victory as surely as if he'd commanded a fighter wing or a maneuver division in the desert."
The Boyd Cycle or OODA loop
Boyd proposed that decision making occurs in a recurring cycle of Observe – Orientate – Decide – Act or OODA for short. His description of the elements of the decision making process is not unique. However, what is profound is the introduction of time as a measure in this decision cycle.
His conclusion was that in an uncertain situation an individual or team can gain the upper hand by processing this OODA cycle more quickly than an opponent. That is, by observing and reacting to events more rapidly than an opponent you can "get inside" the opponent's decision cycle and gain an advantage.
View a larger version of the Boyd Cycle - OODA Loop diagram
Impact of The Boyd Cycle or OODA loop
The adversary who can consistently go through Boyd's Cycle faster than their opponent gains a tremendous advantage. It becomes harder for the opponent to predict the next move as they still haven’t completed the last one. By the time the slower adversary reacts, the faster one is doing something different again and the slower adversary’s action becomes ineffective. With each cycle, the slower party's action gets more and more ineffective. Bear in mind that, in the OODA loop, the speed at which an action is implemented is a key factor. In a fighter dogfight if the pilots are equally matched in terms of reactions, with similar decision making skills, then the maneuverability of the aircraft may be the winning factor - in effect the ability of the aircraft to implement the pilot's maneuvering decisions. Hence Boyd's obsession with designing an aircraft that could turn and change speed quickly.
Military Example - Blitzkrieg
In war, the success of Blitzkrieg and guerrilla warfare is dependent on the speed of the decision making process and creating uncertainty with the enemy in a "fluid" situation. To achieve this, freedom is given to commanders on the ground to make decisions and exploit opportunities as they see them (as long as they contribute to the overall high-level mission), rather than slowing things down by always referring decisions up the chain of the command.
General Blumentritt’s review of Blitzkrieg highlighted that “the entire operational and tactical leadership method hinged upon … rapid, concise assessment of situations … quick decision and quick execution, on the principle: ‘each minute ahead of the enemy is an advantage.’ ”
Sport Example - The Barcelona Football Team
Using the OODA loop can we explain what makes the top European football teams such as Barcelona better than the rest? Let's give it a try.
Barcelona have very highly skilled and talented football players, able to consistently pass the ball quickly and precisely to their teammates. To exploit their skill level, Barcelona often adopt a high tempo tactic in periods of the game. This reduces the time available to the opposition to anticipate what Barcelona will do and hence reduces the time they have to organise themselves to counter it.
Barcelona also adopt the tactic of getting players to interchange their positions with each other throughout the game – they use fluid formations to avoid being predictable. This increases complexity and potentially increases the decision cycle time of the opposition as they have to consider and deal with a number of options. The more options, the more difficult it will be to pre-rehearse them all in training.
These tactics can cause the defensive plans of the opposition to literally fall apart and leave a Barcelona player unmarked in front of goal. And of course Barcelona have Lionel Messi - but that's another story.
Conclusion
Hopefully this brief glimpse of the work of John Boyd has fired your imagination and made you consider whether there are areas they could be applied in your own organisation:
If the new product introduction cycle of your competitors is twelve months and your organisation can get to market in ten months think of the cumulative advantage that could be created, over a number of years, by continually putting the competition on the back foot.
Could at least some of the decisions in your department be delegated down the chain of command - so actions can be taken earlier and unnecessary delays are avoided. Even if your organisation does exactly the same as similar organisations you may be able to create an advantage by doing it faster.
In General Blumentritt’s words: "each minute ahead of the enemy is an advantage". Knowledge of Boyd's ideas doesn't guarantee success. The key is how you use his ideas to build an OODA loop advantage for yourself.
To get a better appreciation of Boyd's ideas, I would recommend reading Robert Coram’s: Boyd - The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War.
Boyd never published any of his work but he did share copies of his various briefings with friends. You can explore copies of his original work at www.danford.net/boyd/